Putting the shortcomings of the 2017 Union into context,
it's a complex task. (DFM/Mikey Reeves)

Often the conversation surrounding the Philadelphia Union, particularly among members of the media contingent striving to make sense of the how and why of another playoff-free season, devolves into a declaration of, ‘they’re just not good enough.’

The standings can tell you that, for sure, but that’s unsatisfactory for the scientific part of my brain. And particularly given the last week, where the Union have squandered four points in stoppage time to resolve the mystery of if there’s a last gasp of intrigue remaining, the questions seem more salient.

So if I may, I’ll offer two explanations, one qualitative, one quantitative.

The “too much effort” explanation

This issue reared its ugly head way back in April when Portland came to town: The talent gulf between the Union and most opponents is vast. In terms of pure talent to start the season, I would’ve pegged the Union between eight- and 10th-best in the Eastern Conference. After the summer shopping, and the Union’s lack thereof, drop them a spot or two.

When you’re always at a collective disadvantage, you’re always playing catchup. Since John Hackworth was in charge, the prevailing mantra has always been that the Union can play with anyone. And that’s true, though in a parity-driven league, every MLS team is designed to be able to compete with anyone.

But when you expound so much effort trying to work back to level talent terms, you get these coin-flip games. The Union spend so much energy trying to stay within a goal of Montreal two weeks ago, then a pin prick pops the balloon and the release is a 3-0 loss. They work so hard against San Jose, then the late penalty kick deflates them. The talent gulf deprives them of ever starting at a position of power, which magnifies mistakes and lumps pressure on a young core.

Manager Jim Curtin is correct in saying that the Toronto loss last week is one of the few times they’ve been outclassed. But the Union are so often edged by small margins in a system of discreet point yields that it’s unsustainable over the span of a season. It doesn’t matter that their performance in San Jose was objectively worthy of two points; they get one or three, and the late mistake decided that.

That entails an inescapable conclusion that Curtin now owns but that has been obvious since March.

“I think we do recognize that a difference maker is something we need to add and increase,” Curtin said Wednesday in his off-week press conference. “We have a good group that creates enough chances in most games. We have to finish chances and do a good job of preventing them at the end of games.”

That game of catchup in the squad – of important depth ballast without that big over-the-top player – is mirrored in the way the results happen.

“Just not good enough” in numbers
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Fafa Picault and the Union need to keep their eye
on the ball when it comes to getting results
away from home. (DFM/Mikey Reeves)

The complexity of the Philadelphia Union often leads to questions asked at cross purposes. The inquiry of if the Union will make the playoffs is a different query than if they can qualify for the postseason.

For a season that is so drastically divergent between home and away, it seems fitting that its overriding logic should endure such a clean fracture.

Now that the questions have been sorted, let’s attend to the answers?

Can the Union make the playoffs? Yes, Jim Curtin is correct in saying that a path exists. His team has been excellent at home, winning seven of eight and holding serve to maintain a place in a crowded playoff hunt, the latest installment a 3-1 controlling of Western Conference elite FC Dallas. In those eight games, the Union have conceded just four total goals, only two of which have come with 22 players on the field.

That hasn’t translated into road results, for reasons that beguile the Union. And should that trend change – or in the mind of Curtin and others, simply normalize, since the Union are probably more talented than a 1-7-3 away mark indicates – then they could make headway.

Now the next question, will the Union make the playoffs? That’s notably thornier. And it probably would require the Union in the final 12 games of the season nearly matching their win total from the first 22 games (seven). Not impossible, but I wouldn't advise running to Vegas to place bets on it.

But in the first week of August, the path to the playoffs exist, and it’s one in which the Union are endowed with the power to craft their journey.

Curtin mentioned the 12-game mini-season that awaited them starting Saturday. Here goes:

Six home games: Dallas (a win), Montreal, Atlanta, Chicago, Seattle, Orlando City

Six away games: San Jose, Toronto, Minnesota, Red Bull, Atlanta, Chicago

That’s a daunting path, but not an impossible one. Let me explain. Read more »

What do the futures of Brian Carroll, center, and Warren Creavalle, right,
with the Union look like? The MLS Expansion Draft could provide hints. (AP)

It’s the first week of November, and the stage is ready to discuss how the Philadelphia Union should guard against losses in an upcoming expansion draft. As some things change, others stay the same.

The Expansion Draft to boost the rosters of incoming Atlanta United and Minnesota United will take place Dec. 13. Unlike the last such draft in 2014 to populate New York City FC and Orlando City’s rosters (aside: Do paired expansion teams have to have identical naming structures?), Atlanta and Minnesota will each pick five players from MLS rosters, as opposed to 10 each last time. That lessens the risk of loss for current clubs. There’s also a limit of one players picked per team, as opposed to two last time.

All the rules briefings are here, and I’m not the first to share thoughts on how the Union should approach the expansion draft.

Here’s the list of who I would protect, in no exact order:

1. Alejandro Bedoya
2. Keegan Rosenberry
3. CJ Sapong
4. Chris Pontius
5. Richie Marquez
6. Ilsinho
7. Roland Alberg
8. Warren Creavalle
9. Ray Gaddis
10. Andre Blake
11. Eric Ayuk

Exempt from protection: Fabian Herbers, Josh Yaro (both Generation Adidas), Auston Trusty, Derrick Jones (Homegrowns)

Not protected: Matt Jones, Anderson, Tranquillo Barnetta, Taylor Washington, Cole Missimo, Maurice Edu, Kevin Kratz, John McCarthy, Ken Tribbett, Walter Restrepo, Leo Fernandes, Brian Carroll, Fabinho, Charlie Davies.

That’s all 29 players on the Union roster. Here’s the logic behind it, with players broken up into categories.
Read more »